Dukakis/Bush 1988.  In summer, polls had mr dukakis WAY ahead...and we all know how that one turned out. 

Trying to predict the outcome of this election is about as effective as tossing a coin this early in the game.  However, I don't see Clark's testimony or book as being a strong effect in the final outcome.  Only because this story can be spun in a variety of ways.

1. The it's bush's fault spin:  This is the NPR take on it, what with all the sound bites of Bush intimidating Clark and it's the one I immediately jumped on. (just wait...my moderate side tends to prevail)

2. The it's bill clinton's fault spin:  Look, the guy was there for a LOOOONG time.  Why did he choose to wait until the bush administration to start pushing these memos, especially with failed military and diplomatic interventions already smouldering from the Clinton Administration.

3.  The "Guy With a Story about a Trash Heap" spin: which is really what is the most close to the truth:  The more I hear, and the more sources I get (without reading the book, because who's got the cash for a current event book anyhow?) the more it all sounds like, "Look at the big clusterfart I used to work in." 

I listened to some of his testimony in the car pickin' up my son from school and what I hear is "This Government, realistically or not, was not able to prevent this."  And I hate to say this but Mean ol' Donald Rumsfeld is right. Some shit you just can't prevent.  Now, I'm sure that we all know the stories we hear about detailed snippets of information that added up to "News Flash, planes will hit buildings TOMORROW!!!"  Well, maybe we did have that information.  But no one...not Richard Clark, not Donal Rumsfeld will ever let that see the light of day.

Thanks,

PRH