Icon Re: The "Bradley Effect"
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Reg (view)

Personally, I don't buy that and there are a lot of reasons for what happened floating around.

The Voting Machine Issue: No real need to explain this as everybody who comes to this site is already well aware.

The "Big Bus" issue: This is where a campaign brings in a whole boat load (or bus loads) of people from outside the state to claim to be New Hampshire voters. All I can say is this has supposedly been going on for a long time in New Hampshire and it's a state where they say it's really easy to get away with. I believe they made sure to have plenty of tables for new voter registration available this go round and again we had another massive surge in voter turnout...they say the Clintons are fond of this one.

The Media Hype Issue: This theory basically goes that the media blew up expectations of an Obama victory to unrealistic proportions. Clinton and McCain were always strong candidates in New Hampshire and it was well known they could put up a good fight there. Also the Iowa caucus results indicated that Obama's win there was in no way a landslide and the media seemed to read some of the signs in New Hampshire incorrectly. Let's face it an Obama victory there by double digits would have been a huge juicy story and they really wanted that.

The New Hampshire Voter Issue: There is a theory that because New Hampshire gets overrun with these politicos and media types that they enjoy bullshitting them to screw up their polling data...this could be easily confirmed if they went back to check how off the polling had been there in previous years...I don't know off the top of my head.

Anyway, I was surprised (and disgusted) by Hillary's win but not shocked. The Clintons do have the biggest and dirtiest machine of all the campaigns out there right now so there was always a good chance she would win there.
–--
'The only way to avoid getting crushed by absurdity, is to humbly include the absurd in our calculations.'
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