Everyone seems to think that a nuclear Iran is some sort of grave threat, and that the Mullahs in charge are half-cocked crazy like George C Scott. In fact, the Pakistan nuclear experience and well as Iranian past history suggests that an arsenal would mainly be a deterrent. And an effective one at that.

While Israel is probably right to suspect that many of its Muslim neighbors would like to see them gone, I don't think that any of them (least of all Iran, would have little to gain) are actually going to make a first move to do it.