Reg
location: back to the wilderness
listening to: static
registered: 1999.11.22
posts: 6470
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Yes, the Tea Party was a small but very vocal radical group that was so far out of step with the majority of Americans they were always doomed. I do have a good chuckle over the fact that Rove wanted to use the Tea Party as part of his brand of political nonsense and failed miserably with it. Not too concerned with Bachmann because I think for some time there will continue to be pockets in this country where you can continue to elect a loon. On the national scale though the Republicans are going down like the Titanic and you are correct in the next presidential election the numbers look even worse for them...really they flat line for them. I'm aware of the 76% White vote critical number which by the time we reach the next election will be down to 72%...the bottom will have forever dropped out for them. This means as they are currently made up and whatever they currently stand for...they can't win a national election any more. There are other numbers in play too. The Millennial Generation numbers are a disaster for them. Everywhere they look they don't have a way to mine any more votes. They have maxed out and the Democrats nationally have struck the mother load. They could go on the war path to abolish the Electoral College and try to turn a national election into a pure popular vote. The can go crazy fighting for redistricting to try to weaken the Democrats grip but in the end they would be fighting for redistricting over and over and people are not stupid. They would quickly catch on to that sort of nonsense. These would be attacks on how our democracy works and would just expose the problem they face. Their other option is voter suppression and that would go over like a lead balloon (cue Zeppelin guitar riff here). You know what has happened in this country is politics has become a full time full contact sport and with it being a part of the news cycle now 24/7 people have become more aware but also more motivated to vote. This whipping people into a frenzy stuff and convincing them that every election is a life and death affair has worked. More people are turning out to vote because it has become like going to the football game on Sunday.They are now talking a lot about Rove's defeat in this election. Oh boy was he ever defeated. The super pacs threw money at this thing to mine votes and got nothing for their investment is the current cry.Let's look at the truth with that though...they got nothing because there are no more votes for them to mine. That's it. That's the bottom line. They got no more votes and could not win because the votes just are not there...period. We can talk about Romney being a weak candidate. We can talk about people being turned off by the negativity of the campaign. We can talk about how long the thing went on and people got tired of it. The truth is though the number of people that will cast a vote for a Republican in a National election has maxed out and the number of people that will cast a vote for a Democrat is growing.The Republicans so far have only shown a strategy that will turn people away from their party but will motivate their radicals. They have shown themselves as a party to be disconnected from the vast majority of Americans. The businessman Romney would tell you that they have been exposed to the law of diminishing returns.I'm really very curious to hear some Republican strategists explain this to see if they actually say anything realistic...or if they just blow smoke. They are in real trouble.I don't say any of this to dance on the Republicans graves in the wake of their defeat...I'm just curious where they are going to go with this.
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'The only way to avoid getting crushed by absurdity, is to humbly include the absurd in our calculations.'
'The only way to avoid getting crushed by absurdity, is to humbly include the absurd in our calculations.'
Reg
(view)
Yes, the Tea Party was a small but very vocal radical group that was so far out of step with the majority of Americans they were always doomed. I do have a good chuckle over the fact that Rove wanted to use the Tea Party as part of his brand of political nonsense and failed miserably with it. Not too concerned with Bachmann because I think for some time there will continue to be pockets in this country where you can continue to elect a loon. On the national scale though the Republicans are going down like the Titanic and you are correct in the next presidential election the numbers look even worse for them...really they flat line for them. I'm aware of the 76% White vote critical number which by the time we reach the next election will be down to 72%...the bottom will have forever dropped out for them. This means as they are currently made up and whatever they currently stand for...they can't win a national election any more. There are other numbers in play too. The Millennial Generation numbers are a disaster for them. Everywhere they look they don't have a way to mine any more votes. They have maxed out and the Democrats nationally have struck the mother load. They could go on the war path to abolish the Electoral College and try to turn a national election into a pure popular vote. The can go crazy fighting for redistricting to try to weaken the Democrats grip but in the end they would be fighting for redistricting over and over and people are not stupid. They would quickly catch on to that sort of nonsense. These would be attacks on how our democracy works and would just expose the problem they face. Their other option is voter suppression and that would go over like a lead balloon (cue Zeppelin guitar riff here). You know what has happened in this country is politics has become a full time full contact sport and with it being a part of the news cycle now 24/7 people have become more aware but also more motivated to vote. This whipping people into a frenzy stuff and convincing them that every election is a life and death affair has worked. More people are turning out to vote because it has become like going to the football game on Sunday.They are now talking a lot about Rove's defeat in this election. Oh boy was he ever defeated. The super pacs threw money at this thing to mine votes and got nothing for their investment is the current cry.Let's look at the truth with that though...they got nothing because there are no more votes for them to mine. That's it. That's the bottom line. They got no more votes and could not win because the votes just are not there...period. We can talk about Romney being a weak candidate. We can talk about people being turned off by the negativity of the campaign. We can talk about how long the thing went on and people got tired of it. The truth is though the number of people that will cast a vote for a Republican in a National election has maxed out and the number of people that will cast a vote for a Democrat is growing.The Republicans so far have only shown a strategy that will turn people away from their party but will motivate their radicals. They have shown themselves as a party to be disconnected from the vast majority of Americans. The businessman Romney would tell you that they have been exposed to the law of diminishing returns.I'm really very curious to hear some Republican strategists explain this to see if they actually say anything realistic...or if they just blow smoke. They are in real trouble.I don't say any of this to dance on the Republicans graves in the wake of their defeat...I'm just curious where they are going to go with this.
–--
'The only way to avoid getting crushed by absurdity, is to humbly include the absurd in our calculations.'
'The only way to avoid getting crushed by absurdity, is to humbly include the absurd in our calculations.'
posted 2012.11.09
posted on November 9th 2012
Reg
location: back to the wilderness
listening to: static
registered: 1999.11.22
posts: 6470
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The end of Republicans as we have known them... – Reg on November 8th, 2012-
Re: The end of Republicans as we have known them... – Dan on November 8th, 2012-
It really is just a numbers thing... – Reg on November 9th, 2012
Re: The end of Republicans as we have known them... – PatBrown on November 10th, 2012-
Turn out the lights the partys over... – Reg on November 11th, 2012
...and what exactly did you mean by this, Pat? – Reg on November 11th, 2012-
Re: ...and what exactly did you mean by this, Pat? – Dan on November 11th, 2012-
Re: ...and what exactly did you mean by this, Pat? – Reg on November 13th, 2012
One quick funny story on this... – Reg on November 13th, 2012
Re: ...and what exactly did you mean by this, Pat? – D/VM on November 13th, 2012
Re: ...and what exactly did you mean by this, Pat? – randym on November 15th, 2012-
Is this Pat? – Reg on November 16th, 2012-
Re: Is this Pat? – Dan on November 16th, 2012-
Hey Dan – randym on November 16th, 2012-
Re: Hey Dan – edlorah on November 17th, 2012-
Re: Hey Dan – Reg on November 18th, 2012
Be serious for a second, Pat, and think about where the Republican party is going... – Reg on November 18th, 2012-
Re: Be serious for a second, Pat, and think about where the Republican party is going... – Peter T. on November 18th, 2012-
Re: Be serious for a second, Pat, and think about where the Republican party is going... – Reg on November 20th, 2012-
Re: Be serious for a second, Pat, and think about where the Republican party is going... – edlorah on November 20th, 2012-
Re: Be serious for a second, Pat, and think about where the Republican party is going... – pkjensen on November 20th, 2012
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