Icon Re: Reg, others . . . .
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Reg (view)

What do you (and others) think of this development?

I don't think much of it. Nader does not excite anybody and as long as Obama and Clinton are going at it the media won't even notice him. This means that most of America won't notice him. The big news story on the "Guess who's running for president?" front is, was, and will be Obama and Clinton. There is much more to excite the media with those two than there is with all the others combined.

Which of the candidates will Nader's campaign likely hurt the most?

Well, in the past obviously it was the Democrats but this time out he probably won't hurt anybody. Oh there will be complaints that he's hurting one candidate or another but I think that's bull. The funny thing is we've got as many if not more disenfranchised Republican voters this time out as we do Democrats. So any third party candidate thinks they have a big pool to draw from. I just don't think Nader is the guy that will really stir that pool. The media will stay locked on to the "first African American" or "first woman" stuff right up until we have a new president. This gives Obama and Clinton a big media and "hype" edge over everybody else. Nader can't dent that. There is the possibility that it backfires and people get sick and turned off by hearing so much about "the woman and the black guy" and McCain benefits from this but Nader won't. If a boring old white guy is going to steal votes from Obama or Clinton it will be McCain not Nader. I do think McCain will get votes from Democrats, older Democrats, Southern Democrats, etc. I think there are a lot of people that don't like Hillary or Obama and McCain is not somebody these people despise. He's got a good reputation with Republicans and Democrats so despite looking and sounding sort of senile at times people will vote for this guy. Nader is a third party candidate that only third party people will vote for I think that is the bottom line. To really pump up the big pool of people out there that don't even want to vote, can't stand the Republican or the Democrat, and those party loyalists that don't like the candidate their party has chosen...well...I think you need a fresh new face with a message and a plan designed to grab media attention. It will be hard to get that against Obama or Clinton.

What are the Vegas odds on Nader actually winning the coveted Office?

Same odds they would give on you or me, none. Nader does not exist officially and therefore you can't give odds on him. Ron Paul will likely get more write in votes than Ralph.
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'The only way to avoid getting crushed by absurdity, is to humbly include the absurd in our calculations.'
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