In just the last ten days or so, the world has seen a dramatic turn of events in Syria and to a lesser degree in South Korea. The murder of a healthcare executive has prompted an impassioned discussion of the health insurance industry's winners and losers, and you just know that there are more, undoubtedly many more events soon to emerge on the horizon, if not directly staring us in the face, some incredibly consequential, others less so. I'm left with many questions as to what the state of affairs will be at the end of the Trump Administration. January 2029 if I have that right. I don't dare offer any predictions here, and I am absolutely certain that many events will play out in a multitude of ways, a never-ending causal chain, sprouting in all directions, forging more and more questions. I’m off on a fool’s errand no doubt, but I’m offering up a sampling of questions that I have at this time. And tomorrow, or next week or month, there would surely be more. So… I’ll begin with the big ones. What stance will Trump take toward Ukraine? Will he cease providing intelligence, arms, and money as part of a quick and dirty end to the war? How will Russia respond if it’s perceived to be the winner? The loser? Will Putin rearm and then invade another country? And how will NATO respond? Will it survive as it presently is? Will the EU remain intact? Similarly, what will our commitment be to Taiwan? Will we maintain our alliances with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines? If we are not perceived as reliable allies, will any of these nations pursue nuclear weapons programs? How will Syria play out? Will it be a more moderate, secular country? Will it descend into a continued civil war? Will the Islamic state or some other jihadist group gain a foothold? What will be the effects on Iran? Will the mullahs cling to power or will a civil war erupt with those demanding radical, western-oriented change? Will Israel use the current tumult to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities, and if so, how will Iran retaliate? What will Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon look like? Will a 2-state solution still be possible? Will Israel and Saudi Arabia sign on with their own version of the Abraham Accords? What will migration look like on our southern border? If Trump enacts especially harsh deportation measures, will that prompt massive protests here? Might that result in Trump invoking The Insurrection Act? Will we see Americans dying in large numbers on American streets? What about the flow to Western Europe? If border control is enacted, with that turn down the heat of the far-right, authoritarian parties? If significant migration continues, will there be other Orbans elected? On the climate change front, what additional conclusive evidence will come to light and will it in any way affect public opinion? Will Trump have successfully repealed or weakened all of Biden’s efforts in this area? Will the United States ban TikTok or will it be sold? Will the USA, as Australia did, bar children under 16 from many social media platforms? What will the state of democracy be here and abroad? If Trump is perceived as having been successful, is populism going to morph into something more sinister? Fascism? Christian Nationalism? If he screws up on the economy, and in other arenas, can we breathe again, and learn from our realization how rare and fragile democracy is? You, dear DBIS readers, will surely nod your heads at some of my offerings and wonder how Peter T. could have missed many obvious ones, the low-hanging fruit of questions. So, please offer them up, and let’s see in January of 2029 if I assembled a serviceable list of concerns, assuming AI hasn’t eliminated us (and I realize I didn’t ask any AI-related questions, as the list would be endless). Peter T.
Four Years From Now...
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In just the last ten days or so, the world has seen a dramatic turn of events in Syria and to a lesser degree in South Korea. The murder of a healthcare executive has prompted an impassioned discussion of the health insurance industry's winners and losers, and you just know that there are more, undoubtedly many more events soon to emerge on the horizon, if not directly staring us in the face, some incredibly consequential, others less so. I'm left with many questions as to what the state of affairs will be at the end of the Trump Administration. January 2029 if I have that right. I don't dare offer any predictions here, and I am absolutely certain that many events will play out in a multitude of ways, a never-ending causal chain, sprouting in all directions, forging more and more questions. I’m off on a fool’s errand no doubt, but I’m offering up a sampling of questions that I have at this time. And tomorrow, or next week or month, there would surely be more. So… I’ll begin with the big ones. What stance will Trump take toward Ukraine? Will he cease providing intelligence, arms, and money as part of a quick and dirty end to the war? How will Russia respond if it’s perceived to be the winner? The loser? Will Putin rearm and then invade another country? And how will NATO respond? Will it survive as it presently is? Will the EU remain intact? Similarly, what will our commitment be to Taiwan? Will we maintain our alliances with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines? If we are not perceived as reliable allies, will any of these nations pursue nuclear weapons programs? How will Syria play out? Will it be a more moderate, secular country? Will it descend into a continued civil war? Will the Islamic state or some other jihadist group gain a foothold? What will be the effects on Iran? Will the mullahs cling to power or will a civil war erupt with those demanding radical, western-oriented change? Will Israel use the current tumult to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities, and if so, how will Iran retaliate? What will Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon look like? Will a 2-state solution still be possible? Will Israel and Saudi Arabia sign on with their own version of the Abraham Accords? What will migration look like on our southern border? If Trump enacts especially harsh deportation measures, will that prompt massive protests here? Might that result in Trump invoking The Insurrection Act? Will we see Americans dying in large numbers on American streets? What about the flow to Western Europe? If border control is enacted, with that turn down the heat of the far-right, authoritarian parties? If significant migration continues, will there be other Orbans elected? On the climate change front, what additional conclusive evidence will come to light and will it in any way affect public opinion? Will Trump have successfully repealed or weakened all of Biden’s efforts in this area? Will the United States ban TikTok or will it be sold? Will the USA, as Australia did, bar children under 16 from many social media platforms? What will the state of democracy be here and abroad? If Trump is perceived as having been successful, is populism going to morph into something more sinister? Fascism? Christian Nationalism? If he screws up on the economy, and in other arenas, can we breathe again, and learn from our realization how rare and fragile democracy is? You, dear DBIS readers, will surely nod your heads at some of my offerings and wonder how Peter T. could have missed many obvious ones, the low-hanging fruit of questions. So, please offer them up, and let’s see in January of 2029 if I assembled a serviceable list of concerns, assuming AI hasn’t eliminated us (and I realize I didn’t ask any AI-related questions, as the list would be endless). Peter T.
