There's only one thing that will sink them in the end, and that is the state of the economy. Their only hope was that thinks picked up enough through the summer to give a good bounce into the fall. Instead, while exports have improved, there's still enough uncertainty in the system that people are certainly going to vote against the incumbent party.

Pat won't see this because Texas is still fairy strongly pro-McCain. But key battleground states like Ohio and Colorado will almost surely flip. Florida is a tough call and could be a spanner in the works for the Dems.

If elected, I hope Obama is sucessful, but the Republicans are likely already hoping for a mistake-fuelled one-term presidency. I'll be shocked if taxes don't rise, but Obama and Dems would be smart to start with baby steps in this regard. How they invest in local infrastructure will also determine if those dollars are seen as being wasted or well-spent. They'd better be very careful how they approach the health care issue as it has the potential to be a bottomless pit (or an improvement, but we'll see).

Most importantly, dealing with Russia and China (not to mention the Middle East) will be a HUGE part of the next presidency. Obama had better hit the ground running and not be seen as naive in this area if he wants to be a two-termer.

If he can successfully handle ALL of the above, then he really will be the transformative president that he seems to want to be.