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rosskolnikov (view)

I think you overestimate the ability to (at least in a timely way) really get something workable out of solar, wind, etc.   Currently, there is just too much energy loss in the solar chain to make it even close to other fuels.  Even coal-to-liquids beats it.  Then there's the pesky problem of what to do when the clouds come.

A lot of folks have put forth that it would be good for all/most buildings to have their own solar panels and essentially become sellers back to the electric grid during peak sunlight hours.  Neat idea, but the last analysis I read showed that the time to pay back such investment for a typical homeowner was more than 25 years (this may have been specific to a particular area of the country).  On a mass scale, that just won't do.

My point is to not diminish any of the potential sources for energy, including oil.  I don't think we can afford any other approach.  There is a lot of money being invested in alternative energy sources, including by most oil majors (save Exxon).  As the right breakthroughs are made, the appropriate technologies will be adopted, I think. 

I appreciate your thoughts on the subject.  Even if we see our current state a little differently, I sense that we'd both like a cleaner, cheaper, more sustainable path to energy use.  That just makes sense.  But I also think the government can help promote research in those areas without clipping oil at the knees.  Since oil companies are major R&D participants in alternative energy, better profit can mean more investment.  That has certainly been the case with BP and Shell and to an extent Chevron.  Exxon really lags in that regard.

The truly big oil giants are the nationalized state companies like PdVSA, ARAMCO, GAZPROM, etc.  These guys have a larger share of oil sales although not profits (due mainly to their own corruption and inefficiency).  Not surprisingly, they invest even less in new energy technologies since such technologies are actually a threat to national finances.  Hard to imagine, but the private oil majors are the good guys (or the less-bad guys) in the overall scheme of things.  The same holds true for environmental performance.

 

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