I think Kerry (because he statistically at this point seems like the most certain candidate), can beat Bush, if he is supported.  I think part of the reason, the link you posted cites people as now wanting Bush out...is BECAUSE there now, at last appears to be light at the end of the dark tunnel of the current administration in the forms of Kerry, Edwards, Dean(?).  Up until very recently, that did not appear clear, and I think that made many people complacent ie..Oh well, there's nobody to "lick Bush".  As you know, complacency can lull one into immobility.

Gene