Using many metrics, things are going well in America. But stay with this until the end and you may not feel that the whole economic story is being publicized! The American consumer keeps spending, and it's estimated that $290 billion remains in consumer's savings due to what was probably excessive covid stimulus. Here are some relevant economic numbers, mostly positive I'd say, but still, grocery store visits remind shoppers that things aren't as they used to be at the cash register. Inflation was about 7% 18 months ago and it's now about 2.6%. Still, the consumer remembers what staples used to be and they surely won't fall back, just rise less dramatically. 2023 GDP was about 2.5% when most economists forecast a recession with negative growth. The soft landing might become a reality. Most Americans haven't a clue what GDP is, nor do they know the difference between the debt and a deficit, they just know what milk and bread cost. The tight labor market has especially helped folks on the lower end of the ladder. As a bonus, these are the people who are most likely to spend, thus keeping things moving nicely. Interest rates have risen thus reducing housing sales but it appears that construction of new single family homes will rise as there's such a shortage. On the downside, the budget deficit is 7% and you usually only see this during wartime. As to the national debt, all $34 trillion of it, uggh, Trump and Biden have added mightily to it. Eventually, some sort of a "grand bargain" will have to be reached that includes higher taxes and some hit to entitlements. Interest on the debt is around $700 billion, and it's just behind SS, medicare, and defense. Fortunately, at least I think fortunately, 75% of it is held by the American public. If inflation rebounds, recession fears could re-emerge, and you wonder, could annual interest costs hit $1 trillion? Who knows, but something has to eventually give!! And if you want to watch the debt in real time, be prepared for numbers as you have never previously experienced them. Hold on to your seats because it's going to be a bumpy ride. https://www.usdebtclock.org/ Peter T.
Numbers Numbers Numbers!
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Using many metrics, things are going well in America. But stay with this until the end and you may not feel that the whole economic story is being publicized! The American consumer keeps spending, and it's estimated that $290 billion remains in consumer's savings due to what was probably excessive covid stimulus. Here are some relevant economic numbers, mostly positive I'd say, but still, grocery store visits remind shoppers that things aren't as they used to be at the cash register. Inflation was about 7% 18 months ago and it's now about 2.6%. Still, the consumer remembers what staples used to be and they surely won't fall back, just rise less dramatically. 2023 GDP was about 2.5% when most economists forecast a recession with negative growth. The soft landing might become a reality. Most Americans haven't a clue what GDP is, nor do they know the difference between the debt and a deficit, they just know what milk and bread cost. The tight labor market has especially helped folks on the lower end of the ladder. As a bonus, these are the people who are most likely to spend, thus keeping things moving nicely. Interest rates have risen thus reducing housing sales but it appears that construction of new single family homes will rise as there's such a shortage. On the downside, the budget deficit is 7% and you usually only see this during wartime. As to the national debt, all $34 trillion of it, uggh, Trump and Biden have added mightily to it. Eventually, some sort of a "grand bargain" will have to be reached that includes higher taxes and some hit to entitlements. Interest on the debt is around $700 billion, and it's just behind SS, medicare, and defense. Fortunately, at least I think fortunately, 75% of it is held by the American public. If inflation rebounds, recession fears could re-emerge, and you wonder, could annual interest costs hit $1 trillion? Who knows, but something has to eventually give!! And if you want to watch the debt in real time, be prepared for numbers as you have never previously experienced them. Hold on to your seats because it's going to be a bumpy ride. https://www.usdebtclock.org/ Peter T.
